According to a book I'm reading called The genius in all of us : why everything you've been told about genetics, talent and IQ is wrong by David Shenk, there is no association between child prodigies and adult geniuses.
The author says the child prodigies DO turn out to be more successful than average - but almost all of them fail to make a comparable mark in the adult world.
"As a rule, child prodigies are not adult-level innovators but masters of technical skill; their spellbinding quality comes of of natural comparison with other children's skills, not because they truly compare to the best adult performers in their field." p51
He says that child prodigies and adult geniuses have different skills. A child prodigy typically masters technical skill - think of a 5 year old violinist. While an adult genius, develops some unique or creative way of thinking.
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As a side note, he said that many young children today are as gifted as Wolfgang Amadeus was on the violin. Today, it's less exceptional because we know that a huge part of talent can be harnessed through the environment. We half expect there to be lots of young, talented violinists.
In Mozart's day, this was less understood.
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